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Foxwedge was popular with buyers in 2015

There is a theory in racing that when the economy is bullish, people tend to gravitate towards freshman sires, writes Renée Geelen.

That was certainly true last year, with the record for the top priced yearling by a freshman being broken by the $1.6 million Sepoy colt from Ancient Song, now named War Hero.

It seems likely that 2016 is going to prove interesting for freshman yearling sires, particularly as the economy is in an odd state of flux, depending on whose point of view you prefer. Real estate keeps on flying, but mining is wobbling. The ASX has stayed fairly static all year, but suffered a small drop in spring. Interest rates are still miniscule, GPD has slowed to only 2% in the past financial quarter, and the International Monetary Fund predicts it will only be 1% in 2017.

If you read the economics section of any online newspaper, you will have noticed a wide range in opinion about the state of the economy. Some commentators are all doom and gloom, while others roll their eyes at the fear merchants and point to figures like unemployment being static, household savings on the improve and, of course, the booming property market. The International Monetary Fund is predicting a global ‘commodity crunch’ but concludes that Australia is better placed to cope than many other exporting nations. They believe that we are more diversified than other resource economies, and will be able to deal with any economic slack created by a resource fall.

Regardless of the wide variety of opinions on where the economy is going, there is plenty for racing folk to feel optimistic about. Prizemoney continues to rise, and Australian-bred horses remain competitive on a global stage. Tasmanian bred Mongolian Khan won two Derbies and topped it off with the Caulfield Cup. Winx pulled off the rare Epsom/Cox Plate double. Able Friend is the world’s best miler and has resumed in Hong Kong with a win. Vendors will be approaching the 2016 round of yearling sales with a conservative optimism – buyers still desire the Australian product.

One of the biggest talking points of any yearling sales series is the freshman sires – after all, new is considered sexy from cars to catwalks around the world, and its no different in the breeding caper. Those new boys whose stock are in vogue, whose racetrack deeds are fresh in our minds bring a certain mystique with their young stock, being, as they are, such an unknown quantity. It feels like they raced only a short while ago and buyers purchase with those feats right there.

The group of freshman sires with yearlings in 2016 are an exciting bunch and that should balance out any concerns around the state of the economy.

The two most expensive freshman sires sent to stud in 2013 were Triple Crown hero Pierro (by Lonhro), and sensational 3YO colt All Too Hard (Casino Prince), whose marketing pull was helped by having Black Caviar as his half-sister.

To put Pierro’s race record into perspective, there have been only six horses win the three races of the 2YO Triple Crown, the Golden Slipper, AJC Sires Produce and Champagne Stakes. Only four have been colts: Baguette (1970), Luskin Star (1977), Tierce (1991) and Pierro (2012) – so the opportunity to buy the progeny of a Triple Crown winner doesn’t come around very often. Pierro has 151 live foals in his first crop.

Pierro’s rival All Too Hard (Casino Prince) was also popular with 145 foals in his first crop, and like Pierro the buying bench was very taken by his weanlings earlier this year.

Other freshman sires that were popular with breeder from a numbers point of view in their first season include Your Song (127 foals), Frankel’s Gr1-performed brother Bullet Train (115 foals), Melbourne Cup winner Americain (113 foals), Dubai World Cup & Kentucky Derby hero Animal Kingdom (77 foals), Aust-bred South African Champion 2YO Delago Deluxe (77 foals), successful European import Lucas Cranach (70 foals), star European galloper Excelebration (69 foals) and globally proven sire Dalakhani (68 foals).

All-told across Australia and New Zealand, there are 59 stallions with live foals in their first crop. Here is a selection of them.